{"id":3579,"date":"2025-07-27T12:21:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T12:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneyevolution.com\/blog\/?p=3579"},"modified":"2025-09-09T19:54:45","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T19:54:45","slug":"can-one-flat-market-really-wreck-your-retirement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneyevolution.com\/blog\/can-one-flat-market-really-wreck-your-retirement\/","title":{"rendered":"Can One Flat Market Really Wreck Your Retirement?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">The impact of a flat market on retirement can be more damaging than most people realize. Even if you&#8217;re following a solid withdrawal strategy, a prolonged period of little to no market growth can chip away at your savings faster than expected. In this article, we\u2019ll walk through a hypothetical retirement scenario to show how sideways markets affect your income\u2014and what you can do to protect your plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Can a Flat Market REALLY Wreck Your Retirement Plans?\" width=\"1278\" height=\"719\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Z11YCj5O4j0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Is the Bucket Strategy for Retirement Income?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">I recently talked about how to create a bucket strategy to generate $120,000 a year of retirement income. In that article, I went through how the bucket strategy works and some of the risks that come along with it. In this article, I want to go a little deeper into what actually happens when we go through a flat or sideways market\u2014and how you should think about operating those buckets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Retirement Income Example: $2 Million Portfolio, $80,000 Withdrawals<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Let\u2019s walk through a hypothetical situation. Again, this is just hypothetical\u2014your situation could be very different. Let\u2019s say someone wants to get $80,000 a year from their retirement portfolio, and they have $2 million of total portfolio assets. Right away, you might already be doing the math in your head: $80,000 out of a $2 million portfolio is exactly 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">That\u2019s what we commonly refer to as the 4% rule\u2014a general rule of thumb that we often use. It\u2019s not a guarantee, of course, but there&#8217;s been a lot of research done on this. The basic idea is that if you limit your withdrawals to 4% or less, you have an above-average chance that your money will last the rest of your life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Now, when that research was originally done back in the early 1990s, it was based on a 20-year retirement period. Success was defined as still having at least $1 in the portfolio after 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">But depending on your age and longevity, 20 years might not be enough. I have a grandfather who\u2019s about to turn 97, and I think he retired in 1986. Hopefully, you&#8217;ll have that kind of longevity too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Setting Up the Retirement Buckets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">When you\u2019re planning out your buckets, it\u2019s easy to overlook the <strong>impact of a flat market on retirement<\/strong> because it doesn\u2019t feel as dramatic as a crash\u2014but it can be just as dangerous over time. Let\u2019s break this down using a three-bucket strategy for income planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Before we get into the exact bucket allocations, here\u2019s an important concept: If you were to invest this money into a conservative short-term vehicle that earns about 4% interest\u2014something realistic as of 2025\u2014you wouldn\u2019t actually need the full $560,000 to fund seven years of $80,000 withdrawals. Thanks to interest earnings (assuming 4%), you&#8217;d only need about $480,000. That\u2019s the number we\u2019ll use for this example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Annual withdrawal need: $80,000<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Bucket #1:<\/strong> Two years of cash flow needs = $160,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Bucket #2:<\/strong> Five years of additional cash flow needs = $320,000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Bucket #3:<\/strong> Long-term growth = $1,520,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">We\u2019re going to keep things simple here and leave inflation and taxes out of it, just like I usually do when illustrating things on the whiteboard. Those things make the math more complicated. That\u2019s where having planning software really helps\u2014being able to calculate taxes, inflation, portfolio growth, and gaps over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">But for this example, we\u2019re just going to assume you need $80,000 a year for the rest of your life. Most people\u2019s situations are more complex\u2014you might have one spouse retiring earlier, Social Security kicking in at different times, maybe a mortgage payoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Understanding the Impact of a Flat Market on Retirement<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">The idea behind the bucket strategy is that as long as the markets are going up\u2014or at least not going backward\u2014you can replenish Bucket #2 from your growth bucket (Bucket #3) each year. Then you refill Bucket #1 from Bucket #2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">That way, you\u2019re always maintaining seven years of retirement income in Buckets #1 and #2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">But the big question is: what happens when the market goes down? Or more accurately\u2014when the market goes down\u2014because it will. That\u2019s just a fact based on over 100 years of stock market history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Sometimes the market bounces back quickly, like in 2018, 2020 with COVID, or even 2022. But those fast recoveries aren\u2019t always the norm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Real-World Example: The 2000\u20132012 Flat Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">If we go back to the dot-com bubble, the market peaked in 2000 and took three years to reach the bottom around late 2002. It bounced a little, then dropped again in 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Eventually, the market recovered\u2014but slowly. By around 2007 or 2008, we were back at the same level as in 2000. Then the Great Financial Crisis hit, and we dropped even more\u2014about 57%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How a Flat Market Impacts Your Withdrawal Strategy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Let\u2019s say your growth bucket starts with $1,520,000. If the market struggles, you may have to let Buckets #1 and #2 drift down, taking $80,000 a year out of them while hoping the market recovers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Hopefully, within seven years\u2014when Buckets #1 and #2 are depleted\u2014your growth bucket has recovered to $1,520,000 or higher. At that point, you\u2019d want to refill those buckets by taking out another $480,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">That would leave you with $1,040,000 in your growth bucket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Now, if you&#8217;re still taking out $80,000 a year, you&#8217;re essentially withdrawing approximately 8% from that growth bucket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Unless you&#8217;re earning at least 8% per year, that growth bucket will continue to shrink\u2014especially since you\u2019re still using it to fund Buckets #1 and #2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">That\u2019s how just one flat or sideways market can put you in a position where your withdrawals aren\u2019t 4% anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What You Can Do In A Flat Market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Look at Your Expenses<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">One of the things you should do is take a close look at your expenses. What are the things you absolutely have to have\u2014your basic needs like housing, food, transportation, insurance? And what are some of the more discretionary expenses like travel or entertainment?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">I get it\u2014you\u2019ve worked your whole life, saved your money, and now you want to enjoy your retirement. But if the market is going sideways, you may want to consider trimming back some discretionary spending temporarily. That could help buy you a couple more years for your portfolio to recover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Add Predictable Income Sources<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">In the previous article, we talked about adding more predictable income. Some examples include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Dividend income<\/strong> \u2013 While dividends aren\u2019t guaranteed, they tend to be more stable. If you can cover $20,000 of your $80,000 need through dividends, now you only need to take $60,000 from your portfolio.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong>Annuities<\/strong> \u2013 As of late April 2025, annuity rates are very good right now. Depending on your age, you might be able to secure some predictable income that\u2019s contractually guaranteed for life. And if you\u2019re married, you can set it up for joint income.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">Predictable income streams help soften the <strong>impact of a flat market on retirement<\/strong>, giving you more flexibility to delay withdrawals or reduce portfolio pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Final Thoughts on the Impact of a Flat Market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">I hope that makes sense a little bit\u2014how to set this up, how to manage it, and what to be aware of. These hypothetical illustrations are meant to simplify the concepts so you can think about how they might apply to your own situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">But in reality, there\u2019s a lot of variability\u2014different income sources, changing expenses, timing strategies. That\u2019s where a real financial plan makes a big difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\">We use some great software that calculates taxes, models retirement cash flow, and takes all those moving parts into account.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The impact of a flat market on retirement can be more damaging than most people realize. Even if you&#8217;re following a solid withdrawal strategy, a prolonged period of little to no market growth can chip away at your savings faster than expected. In this article, we\u2019ll walk through a hypothetical retirement scenario to show how [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3617,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,32],"tags":[43,44,27,36],"class_list":["post-3579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-retirement-income","category-retirement-planning","tag-flat-market","tag-market-downturn","tag-retirement","tag-retirement-planning"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Real Impact of a Flat Market on Retirement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The impact of a flat market on retirement can shrink your assets fast. 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